PARIS - is falling authoritarian Domino Tunisia the first Arabic? Or is a unique case as precedent, for either the Arab world in General should be considered or Maghreb in particular? The region dictators are attempting to close the "Jasmine revolution", but the spark that started Tunisia could spread - perhaps in a matter of months or years - throughout the Arab world.
In fact, the wall of fear has then talked about people, and an "Arab spring" could hand. The message of Tunisia, at least so far, is clear: corrupt and authoritarian regimes, beware: If your days are numbered to reform you deeply and quickly. The greatest danger is that the jasmine revolution the way of Romania anti-Communist uprising of 20 years ago, with the old regime subordinates their bosses sell to stay in power could go.
But the best analogy for Tunisia today Spain in the years before and after the death of Francisco Franco. By opening itself to the world through tourism and with its emphasis on education and the rights of women, Ben Ali's regime something unique in the Middle created East: a vibrant middle class. But the regime as Franco's dictatorship, the members of this new middle class as adults, this promotion do not handle widespread frustration.
Therefore it seems wrong to compare Tunisia and its Jasmine revolution to other national contexts in the region if not dangerous. However, if Morocco now stable, this largely reflects two factors: monarchy and reform. Led by a group of technocrats, the environment of the young King Mohammed VI, a reform process - including political liberalization – seriously, has begun even if the results seem modest.
Furthermore, Mohammed VI as "Commander of the believers," a "Muslim" benefits legitimacy which two of the most vulnerable regimes of the region do not have the leaders of Algeria and Egypt. And Morocco, in contrast to Algeria, does not suffer the curse of oil.
Although the case of Tunisia is largely unique, it would be shortsighted to dismiss its potential influence where many young Arabs in this age of Facebook and Twitter now "feel Tunisian." elsewhere in the region, Performance and, deep, vulgar despotic essence are humbled by their leaders. You thirst for freedom. Whatever Jasmine revolution's score, and even though it can be like the fall of the Berlin wall for Europe was for the Arab world, is it "before" and "after" set up
Select the "after" expected to be two possible models of policy development for the Arab world: Turkey and the Iran. When the revolutionary wave which began in Tunisia is to be tried on the Arab world, how many countries by Turkish openness, be and how many of Iranian fundamentalism?
Of course, this is a somewhat simplistic dichotomy. There are grey areas in the Turkish experiment with "moderate Islam" and, moreover, Iranian mullahs, there are reasons for hope in the vibrant and durable nature that country's civil society.
Clearly, the West is the preference for the Turkish model. Most Europeans would like to keep Turkey, but possibly at a reasonable distance changes and possible error when faced not chaos in the Arab world, you look favorably on Turkey potential, a stabilizing role play with.
To be sure, history never repeats itself, but could be a kind of neo-Ottoman order the best response to the risk of "Arab chaos"? Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey already plays an increasingly important role in the region and strengthened his image with ordinary Arabs by muscular diplomatic mission against deadly military attack of Israel in June 2010 on a flotilla of Gaza-bound aid which were organized by a Turkish charity.
But there is one thing that popular to be and another, serve as an example. Turkey demonstrates that Islam and modernity are compatible. But the Turks are the Ottoman Empire's heirs and the Arab world, in contrast to the Western hopes may not prepared his current frustration for the humiliating admission Exchange, requiring his former ruler model to progress towards modernity.
It would be dangerous to assume that democracy in the Arab world is just around the corner after Tunisia. But who believe that nothing will change, is illusory. And for better or worse, the story in the Arab world - or there is very little to the West of it can do.
Dominique Moïsi is the author of the geopolitics of emotion Copyright: project syndicate, 2011.
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