Abraham - Tunisia's "Jasmine revolution" has thrown a spotlight on the consequences of stagnant economies and endemic unemployment region authoritarian Arab Governments. Less noticed, is an important factor which contribute to this malaise: the inability of the Maghreb countries - Algeria, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco and Tunesien-, to increase their economic cooperation.
Indeed would the Arab Union estimates the lack of regional integration each country two percentage points of annual GDP growth costs, while the African Economic Commission expects that when a Maghreb Union existed, the five countries each win 5% of GDP. And the World Bank estimates that deeper integration, including the liberalisation of services and reforming the investment regulations 24% real per capita GDP would have increased in 2005-2015 of 34% for Algeria, 27% for Morocco and Tunisia.
These countries can no longer afford to wait. If you keep the growth rates that recorded in the last five years, will be more than two decades you, to achieve the current per capita income of less affluent OECD members, Mexico and Turkey.
A dynamic single market would create opportunities for companies throughout the region. But today only 1.2 to 2% of external trade of the five Maghreb countries in the region. The key question is whether intra-regional trade hamper the development of structural problems or institutional and political factors.
In economic terms which can be explained negligible level of trade intra-Maghreb by factors such as small market size and low trade complementarity - the weak match, in other words, between exports and imports. The potential for intra-Maghreb trade seems partially by the similarity of the economy in some countries, especially in Morocco and Tunisia limited. The finger Kreinin index measuring trade similarities, is more than 70% for exports of both countries to the European Union.
Regional integration could contribute to higher growth in two ways. First integration of Maghreb would economies of scale and boost competition, establishing a market of some the world's most vibrant trading powers more than 75 million consumers – similar in size and certainly big enough to the region increase attractiveness for foreign investors create. Second, regional integration would "Hub and Spoke" reduce effects between the EU and the Maghreb - effects when large "regional or bilateral trade agreements with several smaller countries hub" signed.
The globalization of markets as a powerful economic regulator of the economies, but it is destabilizing the world's most vulnerable zones. If the Maghreb countries fragment further to mutually hostile, protectionist entities, the only possible result economic growth that is too slow to population - already triggered by the montage contrasts in living standards, North and South of the Mediterranean expectations.
Given the growing challenges of globalisation, the only force that is enough, the Maghreb is enormous economic potential to harness collective political will. Otherwise, the region seems forth shaken by insecurity and instability determines a porous economic and political space. In an unstable world, an integrated Maghreb is both a necessity and an opportunity.
Yet many in the Maghreb - policy makers and the public remain ambivalent about regional integration alike--. There are therefore essential to develop a political project that captures the imagination of people and leaders in the region.
Nothing highlights the benefits of regional integration as blatantly as major infrastructure projects that are of common interest to several countries. Common transport ventures, for example, would have a strong political impact and maximum visibility and bring Maghreb citizens closer together physically and psychologically.
Energy projects could also be strengthened as the energy needs are expected to quickly grow South of the Mediterranean than in Europe. If you have been accompanied developed industrial projects on gas as feedstock or as an energy source and with EU partners, such projects would increase integration of Maghreb. The region abundant gas resources should be used also to power desalination plants, the Maghreb's enormous water needs.
Indeed, explosion and rapid urbanization, along with the accelerating pace of development of tourism, the region is already water scarcity restrains growth. Development of water infrastructure is vital for the Maghreb, so if it a problem that should unite the region, management and allocation of water resources.
The first order of business must however to resolve international conflicts, such as the Algerian-Moroccan dispute over Western Sahara, that prevent the creation of a unified Maghreb that. Otherwise, it will be difficult, even, to see the outlines of a common future. And without such a future, the economic desperation that gave rise to the revolution in Tunis is unlikely to disappear.
Larabi Jaïdi is Professor of Economics at Morocco Mohammed V University Copyright: project syndicate / Europe's world 2011.
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